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What Moscow, Beijing and Delhi think of Biden v Trump rematch

 

When Americans choose their next president, the contest is always closely watched around the world.

There are countless ways US foreign policy - and the actions of the White House - has an impact on different parts of the globe.

American influence abroad is sure to play a part in the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Thursday.

But it's not just in Ukraine, Israel and Gaza that this election matters.

Eight of the BBC's foreign correspondents explain why this election rematch is making waves where they are.

Russians will watch closely for instability

By Steve Rosenberg, Russia editor, Moscow

Imagine you’re Vladimir Putin. Who would you prefer in the White House?

The man who’s called you “a killer” and pledged to stand by Ukraine? (that’s Joe Biden).

Or the candidate who has criticised US military assistance to Kyiv and said he’d encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to any Nato member country that doesn’t meet defence spending guidelines (a certain Donald Trump).

Always keen to surprise, the Kremlin leader has gone on record as saying he’d actually prefer Joe Biden to keep his job because of his “predictability”.

Such a public endorsement, though, should be taken with an extremely large pinch of Russian salt. Moscow is likely to view the election of a Nato-sceptic, Ukraine-sceptic US president as three lemons for Russia on the geo-political fruit machine.

Not that there’s a guaranteed pay-out for Moscow. The Kremlin was left disappointed by the first Trump presidency.

In 2016 one Russian official admitted to me having celebrated Mr Trump’s victory with a cigar and a bottle of champagne. But the champagne went flat. The Russian authorities had expected an improvement in Russia-US relations - that never materialised.

Who’s to say a second Trump presidency wouldn’t leave Moscow feeling similarly underwhelmed.

Whoever wins the race for the White House, the Russian authorities will be watching closely for signs of post-election political instability and polarisation in America and looking for ways to benefit. 

Biggest differences are over Taiwan

By Laura Bicker, China correspondent, Beijing

Both candidates are vying to be tough on Beijing and have similar economic policies to combat China’s rise including raising tariffs on cheap Chinese goods.

But they have very different approaches to dealing with China’s regional influence.

Biden has shored up relationships there, in the hope that a united front sends a clear message to an increasingly assertive Beijing.

But when president, Trump focused less on being a statesman and more on what he saw was the “best deal”. He threatened to remove US troops from South Korea unless Seoul paid Washington more money.

The biggest difference between the two is on Taiwan.

On multiple occasions, Biden has reiterated a pledge to come to the self-governing island’s defence if President Xi makes good on his promise to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, by force if necessary.

But Trump has accused Taiwan of undermining American businesses and he has expressed opposition to a US bill which sent aid there. That led some to question whether he would be willing to come to Taipei’s aid if needed.

When the US votes, China is unlikely to have a favourite in the fight.

In Beijing’s view, an unpredictable Trump could weaken and divide US allies in the region - but he could also create another trade war.

They won’t be too keen on another four years of Biden either. They believe his alliance building has the potential to create a new Cold War. 

Ukrainians are spectators in high-stakes vote

By Gordon Corera, security correspondent, Kyiv

There is perhaps no foreign country for whom the US election matters more than Ukraine.

Everyone knows US support in the form of money and weapons has been vital in sustaining Ukraine’s war effort. Few believe that Europe could quickly or easily step into any gap.

But here in Kyiv, most people are less focused on the ins and outs of the campaign than you would expect.

That is because, as one person told me, November feels a long way away. There are more pressing concerns as cities come under attack from Russian glide bombs and as Ukrainian forces battle to prevent Russian advances.

They are very aware of what is being said about Ukraine during the campaign. When it comes to Donald Trump, analysts here know he has talked about bringing an end to a war and that there is talk of cutting aid.

While some fear he could force Ukraine into a deal it does not like, experts caution that what will matter is what someone does in office, not what they say during the campaign or in a debate.

And there is an understanding that even a Joe Biden win will not prevent challenges, given how long it took to get the last aid package passed by Congress.

So the stakes for Ukraine are high but it remains only a spectator, and unpredictability is something Ukrainians have long learnt to live with.

More uncertainty for the UK

By James Landale, diplomatic correspondent, London

Policymakers in the UK tell me they are looking at the US election with some trepidation.

On one level, there is a nervousness about potential decisions that could affect the UK.

Would a President Trump returning to the White House weaken US military support for Ukraine and cosy up to Vladimir Putin?

Would he pick another fight with Europe over the Nato military alliance? Would he spark a trade war with China?

Would a second-term President Biden increase US isolationism and protectionism? Would he be up for the role physically for another four years?

On another level, there is a broader concern. There is a fear in the UK that a close result on November 5, one that is not accepted as legitimate by many American voters, could lead to political violence worse than the storming of the Capitol in January 2021.

A crisis of American democracy may damage US global leadership and encourage autocrats the world over.

All this worries UK politicians in both major parties as they prepare for their own election on 4 July.

Would they at some point have to choose between supporting democratic values and staying close to a traditional ally? Would they have to choose between the US and Europe on some big issue?

Above all, the US election presents the UK with more uncertainty in an increasingly uncertain world.

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